Jaysella’s Newmarket 1,000 Guineas Racecard for Sunday May 4th 2025

Jaysella’s Newmarket 1,000 Guineas Racecard for Sunday 4th May

Betfred Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) (Fillies) 1.45
Falakeyah
Just the one run on the all-weather for Owen Burrows New Bay filly Falakeyah, but she showed plenty enough to get my vote for her next run. That was back in November and her only start at two, but she finished with such poise under supercool Jim Crowley I think she’s a worthy favourite for this Listed contest. With an entry for the Oaks, this 10 furlong trip looks just the right starting point for her Classic campaign, and I don’t think she’ll be far away. William Haggas’s Anna Swan was last seen in the Group One Fillies’ Mile here in October, in her last run for Sir Michael Stoute before the move to the Somerville Lodge handler, so she certainly has some quality despite the down the field finish. That was a very deep race though, so Anna Swan will give the selection the most to think about, but Falakeyah it is, for me.

Betfred Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) 2.20
Running Lion (nap)
There’s only the five lining up, but there’s plenty of quality for the Group 2 Dahlia. She was second in this last year, behind Hughie Morrison’s Stay Alert, just running out of steam in the final furlong, but I think she can go one better here under the brilliant Oisin Murphy. Of course, 1,000 Guineas winner of 2024, Elmalka has to be feared, but she didn’t win again after that Classic triumph, so has to show she’s improved again on her first run of this campaign. Charlie Appleby’s Cinderella’s Dream was just a half-length second to Moira in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar, so has to be a danger on this ground, but it’s Running Lion I like for this.

Betfred Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 2.55
Liam Swagger
I think this could be going to James Owen’s Liam Swagger, as I did for the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. I had him at 20/1 ante-post for that Juvenile race, and he did me proud coming in third. I do like the way James Owen goes about his business, with plenty of success in National Hunt to go along with an exciting string of flat runners, and Liam Swagger is one that can perform well in both codes for this young trainer. Adrian Keatley’s Kihavah won last time out at Musselburgh, and is another that runs well in both codes, but he’s under a penalty and has to give my selection over a stone and a half, which could be telling when they hit rising ground coming out of the dip. Liam Swagger to score for James Owen, with Kihavah running him close.

Betfred 1,000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) 3.35
Lake Victoria (nb)
I think the second Classic of the year is going to one or the other of the powerhouse yards of Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby. The Ballydoyle runner is Lake Victoria, the one I gave as my choice in the Yuulo Weekender podcast this week, and I can see no reason to change my mind, despite the Moulton Paddocks inmate, Desert Flower coming into hot favouritism as the race nears. This pair amassed 9 unbeaten runs between them last year, with 5 of those here at Headquarters, so there’ll be no surprises on the track, and that’s one factor ticked off. Lake Victoria is a Frankel filly, and it’s been clear for some years that those fillies do come to hand sooner than the Frankel colts, while Desert Flower is a Night Of Thunder filly, so also has Guineas pedigree inbred. Archie Watson has supplemented Duty First for this after a Group 3 Newbury win, while Ger Lyons Red Letter deserves to line up here, but has a bit to find on Lake Victoria from last year, and although Saeed Bin Suroor hasn’t had a Classic winner for quite a while, Elwateen looks a super each way punt. Lake Victoria for me, she’s won here and on fast ground at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last year, and that’s rock solid form for me.

Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes 4.10
Twilight Star
Just the four going to post for this Fillies’ Novice Stakes, but only one with any racecourse experience, and that’s Charlie Appleby’s Twilight Star. That’s enough to swing me in her favour, and with a third place on her debut under rules over course and distance last month, she can be expected to come on for that. She definitely showed signs of greenness on that first run, being a bit too keen early on and looking off balance out of the dip, so with a more measured effort has to be in the mix. George Boughey’s Little Havana looks the most interesting of the other three, but Twilight Star is my pick in the Godolphin Blue.

Tattersalls Online £40,000 EBF Novice Stakes 4.45
Moonfall
A course and distance second on his first run under code is good enough to get my vote for this Novice Stakes. He was off the pace in the early stages of that sprint, but did respond to some urging from Billy Loughnane, though too late to land a blow on the winner, Charlie Appleby’s Military Code. A half-brother to stablemate Soprano suggests there’s enough pedigree for this Starman colt to score over this minimum trip.

Nyetimber Handicap 5.20
General Admission
The closer on the Guineas meeting can go to Andrew Balding’s General Admission, with Oisin Murphy in charge giving me every confidence. There’s a few potential improvers here that include Hallelujah U, whose course and distance third gives him claims, while William Haggas’s Merchant has dominated the ante-post markets this week, and has to be on my list under Tom Marquand. It’s a bit of a puzzle to me, but Oisin Murphy can sprinkle a bit of magic and give General Admission every chance.